ACCORDING to Kenya, it is not at war with Somalis but with the
al-Qaeda-linked Shabab militia that controls most of south Somalia.
Theoretically that may be true. But with several thousand troops on the
ground, and with air, special forces and intelligence support from
America, Britain, Ethiopia and France, the Kenyan message of peace for
all Somalis rings somewhat hollow.
The Shabab are adept at propaganda. They lie about battle statistics. They have been accused of dressing up their own dead fighters to look like civilian casualties. Baobab recently asserted that in Somalia the untested Kenyan military needed to be competent and the jihadists inept. Kenya failed the first test by invading Somalia during the rainy season: its assault has already got stuck in the mud. The Shabab fighters are enured to the mosquitoes, thorniness and dysentry of bush fighting. The Kenyans may fare less well. None of this may matter. Kenya has geography and firepower on its side. Somalia has no Tora Bora in which the Shabab can hide. Even if its fighters scuttle to the mangrove swamps, they are likely to be picked off as they emerge.
Yet the Kenyans seem already to have squandered more of their advantage with their alarmingly muddled reporting of recent fighting. On October 30th, the Kenyan military spokesperson, Major Emmanuel Chirchir, announced that a Kenyan air strike on the Somali town of Jilib had killed 10 Shabab fighters and injured 47. He was adamant that no children or women among the casualties—just militants. The next day a report emerged from Médicins sans Frontières (MSF), a medical charity, stating they had attended five dead in their clinic in Jilib: three children, one woman, and one man. MSF said 45 people had been wounded, 31 of them children, 9 of them women, all with shrapnel injuries.
The Kenyan military explained that they had hit a Shabab lorry filled with ammunition, which had driven towards a crowd where Shabab officials were handing out food rations to displaced people. The Kenyans had no video to back up their claim, but even if true what matters is that the Shabab were handed a propaganda victory by dodgy Kenyan reporting. They will use the images of ruptured children for their ends.
Chastened, Kenya now says it will be in Somalia for as long as it takes to obliterate the jihadists, years, if necessary, say the senior Kenyan brass. Things will escalate further if Kenyans launch their promised assault on Kismayo and the Shabab respond by using weapons allegedly flown in by Eritrea and with threatened major terrorist strikes in Nairobi and beyond.
The Shabab are adept at propaganda. They lie about battle statistics. They have been accused of dressing up their own dead fighters to look like civilian casualties. Baobab recently asserted that in Somalia the untested Kenyan military needed to be competent and the jihadists inept. Kenya failed the first test by invading Somalia during the rainy season: its assault has already got stuck in the mud. The Shabab fighters are enured to the mosquitoes, thorniness and dysentry of bush fighting. The Kenyans may fare less well. None of this may matter. Kenya has geography and firepower on its side. Somalia has no Tora Bora in which the Shabab can hide. Even if its fighters scuttle to the mangrove swamps, they are likely to be picked off as they emerge.
Yet the Kenyans seem already to have squandered more of their advantage with their alarmingly muddled reporting of recent fighting. On October 30th, the Kenyan military spokesperson, Major Emmanuel Chirchir, announced that a Kenyan air strike on the Somali town of Jilib had killed 10 Shabab fighters and injured 47. He was adamant that no children or women among the casualties—just militants. The next day a report emerged from Médicins sans Frontières (MSF), a medical charity, stating they had attended five dead in their clinic in Jilib: three children, one woman, and one man. MSF said 45 people had been wounded, 31 of them children, 9 of them women, all with shrapnel injuries.
The Kenyan military explained that they had hit a Shabab lorry filled with ammunition, which had driven towards a crowd where Shabab officials were handing out food rations to displaced people. The Kenyans had no video to back up their claim, but even if true what matters is that the Shabab were handed a propaganda victory by dodgy Kenyan reporting. They will use the images of ruptured children for their ends.
Chastened, Kenya now says it will be in Somalia for as long as it takes to obliterate the jihadists, years, if necessary, say the senior Kenyan brass. Things will escalate further if Kenyans launch their promised assault on Kismayo and the Shabab respond by using weapons allegedly flown in by Eritrea and with threatened major terrorist strikes in Nairobi and beyond.
