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Thursday, December 16, 2010

why its ocampos case is unstopable

I don't think the indictment part is a big deal. All Ocampo needs to do is to prove that the suspects have a case to answer. Remember with Bashir the Pre-Trial judges refused the genocide charge but accepted the rest. Ocampo had to go the the ICC Court of Appeal judges accepted it. One thing with Ocampo is that when he goes after you, he is like a bull dog. He will chase you to the end of the earth. The passion with which he takes his work is incredible.

I hope Biwott doesn't poison him. The guy is tenacious. He is not just a technocrat doing his job. He puts his heart in it. Look what he has done to these guys. He told them that he will seal the cases until he gets indictment at which point things become public. Then Ruto started messing around, going to the Hague and having Daily press conferences, parading some fake witnesses and even stalking Ocampo when he came to Nairobi.

Then Ocampo told them he will release the list to avoid unnecessary speculations and interference with witnesses. That is exactly what he has done. So with Kenyan politicians who like to bully prosecutors, bully judges and strut around with weekly funeral rallies, Ocampo is going to be their worst nightmare. Already Ocampo has set the "bail conditions". He is now watching everybody like a hawk. You screw up you are going to stay in jail during the trial.

Now it terms of indictment, we are lucky in very many ways. The Kenyan case has been handled with the speed of lightning in terms of how slow the ICC process usually is. The case is still fresh in everybody's mind. Ocampo just got the Pre-Trial 1 ruling a few months ago with a 2-1 decision. I think it is the same judges who will hear the indictment case. The one dissenting judge gave a very weak argument about general lawlessness. Ocampo can easily convince even that one and get 3-0 ruling to indict.

There are no cross examinations here. You simply present the facts and the evidence and ask the court to let the defendants go to a full hearing. Most judges will grant that. After all if they are innocent the will be set free after a full trial. The issue here is merely to establish that the Prosecutor is not abusing the system or filing frivolous or charges that would be impossible to prove. That is why the pre-trial judges in Bashir's case rejected the genocide charge. They thought it would be impossible to prove and the ICC court of appeal disagreed.

So Ocampo just has to line up his stuff get the indictments and then people are going to calm down because we will be talking 4 or more years as the trial goes on. There will be endless appeals and applications from both sides. It will go on forever. The issue for the suspects is to be of good behaviour to avoid being locked up as the trial goes on. That is a lot to ask from a Kenyan politician.

From what I have heard, the ICC investigators are like a locust attack. When they hit a place, nothing remains standing. Kenya is one of the few countries where they had a free reign plus six boxes of info and data handed to them. You give Ocampo that, you are in trouble.

Like I said I see Kibaki flipping off and going for the STK. Mama Ngina is going to kill him if he let's the prince go to the Hague. And poor Muthaura, how can Kibaki let him send his last years in the Hague. Lucy won't allow that. I can tell you th e amount of night meetings going on as we speak is a record. They better make sure that Ocampo's eyes and ears are not anywhere near. You never No.

But I know one thing, the drama has not even started yet and Kibaki has very little time. He is out 2012 and one of the big deals was to find someone to protect Uhuru and the big ones. May be Kalonzo can do that but how the heck do you protect someone already in the Hague. The idea was to avoid going there in the first place. Any Mr. Kati Kati has already issued a statement condemning Ocampo for releasing the names before getting indictments. I tell you, Kati Kati politics can be tough. Kati Kati wants to be with the suspects and the victims all at the same time. Hard road to walk.

Interestingly it is the man they have insulting and plotting against all these, one Amolo Odinga, who has tried to help them in any meaningful way. Raila fought heard for the STK. They laughed at him and said he was trying to fix some people. Then now they say Ocampo is working for Raila. Very soon after they are indicted they are going to claim even the judges at the ICC are working for Raila and have been bribed to finish them. That is hiw ridiculous these people are.

I am sure Raila would have gone for the STK being linked up to the TJRC to put everything to rest. But NOOO. They wouldn't listen. That is still my favourite option. I don't want to see an old man rotting at the Hague with Taylor. These are citizens of the republic of Kenya just like me. If they were willing to work towards a solution I would be the first the jump on their side. But they thought they can just bully everybody around. Now let them try bullying Ocampo.

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